Obama, the Internet and the Decline of Big Money and Big Media
By Micah L. Sifry, 02/06/2008 - 12:14pm

I just got back home from a quick business trip to Israel, and literally arrived at JFK at 6am this morning to learn all of the results from the Uber-Tuesday primaries. So forgive me if this post seems like it was written at 35,000 feet. But I think if we take a step back from the state-by-state results and look at the broader picture, I think a bold statement is in order.

If it were not for the internet, and all the campaign- and voter-generated activism that it has enabled, Hillary Clinton would already be the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, and Barack Obama or another reform-minded candidate would be trailing badly. (On the Republican side, it's harder to make such a clear-cut statement, mainly because the field has been so open on that side. But again, I think the internet and all the campaign- and voter-generated activism it has enabled has helped keep the Republican field from solidifying, and certainly it has helped two of the four remaining candidates, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, extend their reach. For the purposes of this argument, though, I am going to focus on the Ds, a side that I know better anyway, and maybe one of our Republican contributors will wrestle with this on their side.)

From the 1980s forward, the presidential nominating process--what political scientists call "the winnowing process"--has been dominated by two things: the money chase and the big media's power to frame the primary narrative around the race. On the Democratic side, we've seen the same pattern play out every time there has been an open field (i.e., no sitting president running for re-election). One candidate is the favorite of the party's establishment and its major sources of funding, and one tries to create a reform coalition to dislodge the establishment favorite. That, in broad strokes, is the story of Mondale vs Hart in 1984, Dukakis vs Jackson in 1988, Clinton vs Brown in 1992, and Gore vs Bradley in 2000.

In 2004, something started to shift, and we saw a semi-outsider candidate powered mainly by small donations, Howard Dean, nearly steal the prize, but then the voters--and the establishment and the money--quickly solidified around John Kerry. The frontloading of the primaries--which has been engineered by a succession of party insiders who have wanted to insure a quick consolidation around a frontrunner (ideally from the establishment) has always given the edge to that better-financed establishment candidate. And certainly once Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire, that was the end of any reform challenge to the frontrunner.

To be clear, I don't think the Democratic pattern can be distilled simply down to Big Money + Party Establishment vs Smaller Money + Outsider Reformer. As Ron Brownstein pointed out in a great column last year, there's a demographic element to this pattern too. In each case cited above, the victorious "insider" candidate has also managed to appeal to the more working-class Democratic base while the "reformer" has tapped more well-educated liberal types. Beer-drinkers vs wine-drinkers. Labor vs eggheads. Ethnic Catholics vs Jews and blacks. Brownstein warned that Obama, with his two best-selling introspective books and Harvard pedigree, might simply be repeating the same Hart-Jackson-Brown-Bradley role, while Clinton, with her base among working women, union members and urban minorities, was more likely to maintain the upper hand. And that may still be the story of 2008.

Now, Clinton vs Obama does have echoes of Gore vs Bradley or Mondale vs Hart. In each case, you have a former VP (or former First Lady, which Hillary is playing as if she was VP) against a reformist Senator. In each case, the reformist campaigned for change and new ideas over experience. But with Obama, two things are different.

One, and it's almost ridiculous to have to state it, is his obvious charisma. Compared to Obama, Bill Bradley and Gary Hart had all the charisma of a Brookings Institution policy paper (though perhaps Donna Rice felt differently about Hart). It often feels like the Obama campaign is selling us a rock star (tell me if that isn't the case with his main national TV commercial, when it zooms in on him on some giant stage surrounded by thousands of adoring, screaming fans). But time and again Obama delivers an arena-level performance, and his fans want to share the magic they are experiencing with others. And while I haven't had the time yet to dig into the cross-tabs, my gut tells me that Obama is drawing more support, in absolute terms, from younger voters than either Bradley or Hart ever managed to do--so even if his coalition is similar in make-up to theirs, it's bigger.

But the other big change, to finally circle around to my statement at the beginning of this post, is that we are now seeing the internet's role in politics in full flower. As Patrick Ruffini pointed out here recently, no candidate in American history has ever raised $32 million in a single month--until Obama came along and hit that mark this January. $28 million of that, the campaign says, was raised online. Clinton, who has had a more traditional fundraising operation, raised something like $13.5 million last month. There's also a significant difference in how the two campaigns are doing in attracting and mobilizing volunteers. We don't have the same kind of hard metrics, but from all kinds of soundings we know that Obama has been deploying huge numbers of paid and unpaid field organizers, and that voter-generated events on his behalf vastly outnumber similar events organized by Clinton supporters. (See my January 15 post on how he was dominating online organizing of offline events.)

And lastly there is a real difference in how each candidate and their base is situated in the online ecology. In addition to the backing of e-groups like MoveOn.org, Obama is rolling up personal endorsements from all kinds of tech/geek influentials: danah boyd, Larry Lessig, David Weinberger, Dave Winer, Ross Mayfield of Socialtext, Michael Arrington--there are plenty of others and I've just lost track. (The only influential tech blogger backing Hillary that I know of is Jeff Jarvis.) And perhaps most importantly, Obama's supporters are net natives. They know how to use the medium to spread messages. Just compare the DipDive "Yes We Can" video to the Clinton campaign's latest attempt at viral video, it's dippy "Guitar Hero" parody. One campaign benefits from voter-generated organic online support (that it has helped foster, as Ari Melber keeps pointing out), and one hires professionals to make online videos that, at least in this case, reek of inauthenticity. One campaign embraces the open internet in policy terms, and one cleaves to a Hollywood-inspired attitude towards intellectual property that kept it from even calling for free use of campaign debate video. The bottom line is, in generational terms Clinton's core supporters--women in their 40s through their 60s--are far less likely to be digital natives than Obama's youthful base.

Imagine if Bill Bradley or Gary Hart had the full-blown internet at their disposal in 2000 or 1984. Yes, I know Bradley raised a ton of money online (indeed, he achieved fundraising parity with Gore in 1999), but part of my point here is that back in 2000 the small-donor revolution was just starting--and today the internet effect is not just about small donors (26% of Obama's money is from people giving less than $200, compared to just 12% of Clinton's), though of course that is the easiest metric to point to, and still the most consequential.

The internet effect is also on grass-roots mobilization, by the campaigns as they ask their supporters to take actions (click here to virtual phone bank, or to download a precinct walk list, or to host your own house party) AND by supporters acting on their own to make and share their own powerful messages of support. Back in 2004, Dean webmaster Nicco Mele talked to me about feeling a new kind of progressive muscle flex in support of that campaign (See "The Deaning of America.") Now we're seeing that muscle on steroids. It's partly a product of a candidate with charisma and a real message that resonates--things for which there is no technological fix. But under the right circumstances, and I think we're seeing them now, the internet is a force multiplier for such a campaign.

The old winnowing process, which was mainly about wooing big donors and winning news cycles, is no more. Obama seems to be carving a new path to the nomination, one that has gotten him to parity, and maybe even given him the edge going forward. If he wins the Democratic nomination, there will be all kinds of reasons why. But if that happens, let's hope everyone gives the internet and all the campaign-driven and activist-driven organizing it has powered on his behalf a big share of the credit.

Paul and the Internet vs the Old Media

The old media has all but crowned Hillary the queen. They like Obama because he likes big government. But they like Hillary much better, because she represents the established establishment.

On the "right", is a much different picture. If one had followed the media push, one would have clearly noted that Giuliani was the media darling from the beginning. Immediately after 9-1-1, major players were already suggesting a run for the former mayor. Of course, the Internet was not kind to Giuliani. The big media couldn't stop the skeletons from popping up.

McCain was the second choice of the old media. Today the top stories are declaring that he has the Republican nomination all but wrapped up. There is no mention of the likely brokered convention. But they wouldn't be terribly disappointed with a Romney victory.

While the old media dislikes Huckabee, they have given him a surprising amount of attention. According to some reports, the Democratic party is holding its attacks on the preacher candidate until after the convention, in the hopes that he secures the nomination, giving them an "easy kill".

But it will be difficult for any of the pro-war candidates to win the general election, with the large 70% public disapproval of the war - which is increasingly seen as offensive and ineffective. The great shifting of the Congress to the left in the last congressional election is largely attributable to anti-war sentiment.

And then there's Ron Paul, whose political positions have not changed one iota in 30 years. When he ran for president in 1988, he got no media attention, and scored about 1/2 of a percent of the vote in the general election. Today the only attention he is given is from the renegade media, cable, alternative press, and, of course, the Internet.

The unfortunate have-nots, with only TV and major newspapers and magazines as information sources, are completely in the dark about the anti-war constitutionalist, who would like to do some major cancer surgery on the Republic. They haven't heard of the grassroots fundraising records, which would have been the headline of every major newspaper - were the money earned by any other candidate. They haven't heard about any of his second place primary finishes. Heck, a lot of people still don't even know who he is.

Some reporters have bet their lives on Paul's defeat. They have declared him "unelectable" since he began his campaign in March of 2007. Clearly the old media still largely decides the elections. But it's just a question of time until the Internet becomes the new big media - that is, if the Internet remains free.

The Movement vs. The Machine

Great post. Having worked for Israeli companies while working out of the US, I tip my hat to you for being so coherent in such a sleepless state.

I’d like to tease out more fully one facet of your argument that identifies the important role that the Internet has played in Obama’s campaign. The power in Obama’s “Yes We Can” messaging stems from the authenticity of his movement-oriented politics. Obama is able to inspire not because he is talking about a royal “we” but about us as a movement that has been growing since the Dean campaign, MoveOn and the netroots turned the Internet into a line of communication between youth and politics, and a forum for a diaspora of progressives. The Yes We Can video’s success depends on this movement politics. Without the critical mass of nodes on the Internet that make up this movement, the viral capacity of the Yes We Can video would not have existed, despite its slickness. What this movement is, I’m not exactly sure though a defining trait is its call for transparency, inclusiveness and cosmopolitanism. However, I firmly believe that Obama’s “movement versus machine” framing owes a great debt to these political forbearers that realized the Internet’s low-cost, bottom-up broadcasting potential and wired us to demand a greater voice in our future.

My perspective...

I'll start from early on in my evolution... I am a biracial man whose father is African-American and mother is Caucasian. My parents met in 1959 when my un-wed mother was in a nursing school where my father was employed as a nurses aide... my mother was engaged to a white man who was attending engineering school. My father had an African-American wife and (5) children at the time of his extra-marital relationship with my mother. At some early point of my mothers pregnancy with me she made the decision to marry her fiance, and to lie to everyone about who the father of her un-born child was... she achieved this by claiming that I had been afflicted with a skin-disease called "melanism".

My mother and step-father had four more children together in the space of nine years after I was born, and we grew up together in a middle-class household in white america where the subject of "race" was never discussed. My earliest recollections of having to be aware of race was when I was asked questions about the color of my skin by other classmates in first grade... "Why was my skin dark?", "Was I adopted?" race was certainly a hot-button issue in 1965-66 when I began school , but any awareness that my mother and step-father had achieved from growing up in their white neighborhoods in the 40's and 50's was insufficient in preparing them for raising a biracial child... and to complicate things, they were both in complete denial of their complicity in my mis-education. When I came home from school after having been asked questions by fellow students from my all-white school district, my mother then explained "the skin-disease story" to me... "other kids with this disease usually have dark blotches all over their bodies, so you should feel fortunate". When I would tell my mother about other boys and girls who would call me names or act aggressively for no apparent reason, I began to understand that I would get no further assistance from her to explain this rationale... my step-father was even more removed from the conversation and would only add, "You know what your mother said".

By the time that my step-father transferred jobs and our family of (7) had moved from the all-white Cleveland, Ohio suburb of Stow to the all-white school district of Portville in Western up-state N.Y. it was the spring of 1970 and I was in fourth grade, and already the veteran of many racial incidents and altercations between myself, classmates, and even some adults. My four younger siblings had also been told the same story, and had to explain the same things to their friends when asked why they had a brother who was black... "Hey, did your mother fool around a little bit??" I remember how much that hurt me when I heard it, and I'm sure that they felt just as badly when they did... nonetheless, this was a "subject" that we never discussed as a family, not once, at least in my presence.

I was taught through my observations of my mother and step-father to keep quiet about things that I wasn't sure about, and I was also taught to ignore the obvious.

As I matured into my teen-aged years and began to experience societies issues and insecurities in coming to terms with this countries racial in-equalities during the 70's, I felt an increasing need to rationalize and then codify the information that my mother had given me, regardless of what I was beginning to realize inside... I felt a growing discomfort/conflict, yet there was no one in my life to offer any prospective... I had learned that black people were a part of society that we didn't talk about. ( There was a black family in my small town, and they were poor and lived in a run-down house near the river...I never had any opportunity or reason to associate with them)

I was a "B" student and also began taking an interest in sports where I was above average. Meeting other schools and student athletes were opportunities to then be exposed to populations that had not been inured by my story yet...I was just another black kid to them.

Communicating my experiences to my mother and step-father was difficult because they had no experience with racial prejudice, therefore when I had problems with other children it would be looked at as an issue that "I" had in getting along with others(as well as intra-family sibling issues).
Because "race" was being ruled-out entirely, by my mothers denial of my father, she could not logically use that rationale to explain any conflicts that I would have. My step-fathers complicity in this was to blindly support my mothers viewpoint.

The "white" viewpoint has always been that blacks(black society) were pretty well cared for, and what contact they did have would be polite and careful... What, with the Voting Rights and Civil Rights Acts being passed, the playing field had been leveled.(re: my mother and step-father's generation)
The feelings and comfort of my mother were apparently what was important, and her inculcation had to have been partly comprised of the idea that white society acted as the gate-keepers and care-takers of an infantilized black population.

questions:

How has black society formed its identity?

What role models have been used, and how does white society react to positive
black role models today? (Are they held to a more critical prism??)

Is there enough information readily available for black people to easily form a
positive racial identity?

Is it important that black society is able to connect accurately the dots of its social
evolution in America? and is it also important that white society can connect those
same dots??

What is White Privilege?

What is White awareness?

What is Whiteness?

What about Affirmative Action?

Is Race just a social construct?

How do we improve our society in America?

Is there any other way(besides the attrition of the old guard) to achieve this??

Dave Myers
www.discussrace.com



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