Also Factor in Third Party Support

Jeff Commaroto — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 14:42:20 -0400

I think one thing you have to look at is third parties. In 2004 over a million votes went to third party candidates who were disillusioned or uninterested in the two major parties. Ron Paul is undoubtedly tapping into the nearly 400,000 libertarian voters in 2004 and Barack Obama and other Democratic candidates might well be tapping into the nearly 500,000 Nader voters

An important thing to know is 1) how many of those people giving money to Obama & Paul are registered with their party 2) how many of those people are eligible to vote for those candidates in primaries.

My guess is Paul would lose out from this more than Obama. I live in NY, you can give money to whomever you like and sign up for their friends lists and Facebook & YouTube but you cannot vote for them in the primaries unless you are a member of their party. Each state is different but my guess might also be that if these are college students or new voters or fringe types they might not even be aware yet that they cannot vote in some primaries.

So converting all that "online support" into voting might not only be difficult in just getting people to show up, it might also be difficult in that even if they show up they might not be able to vote in a primary in some states. (They might not even be registered at all)

www.electiongeek.com

Candidates and Social Networks: Generation Gaps and "Unearned" Status

Colin Delany — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 12:34:00 -0400

Some interesting conclusions in a preview of a study of presidential candidates and social networking sites to be released by two Bentley College (Mass.) professors in August. For instance, the authors note that the different demographics of MySpace on one hand and YouTube and Facebook on the other show a generation gap favoring certain candidates: Barak Obama and Ron Paul far outshine the other candidates in their parties on YouTube (and Obama on Facebook) but are much less ahead on MySpace, whose audience is more diverse and not as dominated by students and recent graduates. The authors are also not the first to note the disconnect between social networking standing and broader popularity:

techPresident - Candidates and Social Networks: Generation Gaps and "Unearned" Status - Comments

Also Factor in Third Party Support

Candidates and Social Networks: Generation Gaps and "Unearned" Status